WVU in the News: Heat Deaths Likely Undercounted In W.Va.

Thousands of Americans die every year from heat, but the United States’ official tally of heat-related deaths does not come close to capturing the full human toll according to recent reporting from NPR. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention tracks deaths, but it isn’t always easy to attribute a death to heat. 

The result is a vast undercount of the number of people whose deaths are heat-related and experts say failing to recognize and address this may cost more people their lives. 

NPR partnered with Boston University to find the total number of deaths influenced by heat every year in the United States. The investigation took two years and involved building a statistical model that assessed nearly every county in the country. The full analysis will soon be published in a scientific journal.  

From 2004 to 2018, the national number of heat-related deaths compiled by the CDC was low: on average, around 700 a year. The number has crept up in recent years, now averaging around 1,700 but sometimes topping 2,000, as heat risks grow and counting strategies evolve.  

But even that number is an underestimate, according to NPR and BU’s analysis. On average between 2018 and 2025, NPR estimates that some 9,000 deaths each year in the country are impacted by heat — more than five times higher than the official average over that same period. 

Some years, heat-related deaths can top 10,000. 

The West Virginia data from the study indicated a 13-fold undercount. The CDC shows 4.1 deaths per year on average, but the modeling indicated it should be nearly 53.  

The heat wave season has extended by a month and a half since the 1960s. In 50 of the country’s biggest cities, the number of heat waves has doubled since the 1980s. Heat domes that settle over the country regularly expose tens of millions of Americans — sometimes well over 100 million at a time — to dangerous heat. 

Annual U.S. Heat Deaths

From 2004 to 2018, the national number of heat-related deaths compiled by the CDC was low: on average, around 700 a year. The number has crept up in recent years, now averaging around 1,700 but sometimes topping 2,000, as heat risks grow and counting strategies evolve.